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美国多因素生产率和GDP变化百分比分析

时间:2023-05-16 理论教育 版权反馈
【摘要】:For general readers,we first use simple and easy-to-understand graphics to analyze and demonstrate.Figure 3-1 shows the percent changes of multifactor productivity and GDP in America from 1997 to 2008

美国多因素生产率和GDP变化百分比分析

For general readers,we first use simple and easy-to-understand graphics to analyze and demonstrate.

Figure 3-1 shows the percent changes of multifactor productivity and GDP in America from 1997 to 2008.From Figure 3-1,we can find that there is an obvious positive relationship between the growth rate of multifactor productivity and the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product.In 1997,the growth rate of multifactor productivity of the United States was 0.8 percent and the GDP growth rate was 4.5 percent.In 1999,when the growth rate of multifactor productivity ascended to a first peak of the research period at around 1.8 percent,the growth rate of GDP also came to its first peak at 4.8 percent.After that,the multifactor productivity descended to such an extent that in 2001 it stood at a 0.8 percent annual growth.In the same year,the growth rate of GDP came to its low point which was 1.1 percent.The growth rate of multifactor productivity went up again after 2001 and reached its second peak at 2003 and 2004.The dual numbers of those years were 2.6 percent.Over the same time period,GDP growth reached another peak in 2004,at 3.6 percent.After 2004,as the wave of multifactor productivity growth subsided,the growth of GDP also descended.They both stood at their bottom level in 2008.In that year,the growth rate of multifactor productivity was 0.1 percent and the rate of GDP change was zero.Figure 3-1 actually shows a convincing positive relationship between productivity growth and GDP change.

Figure 3-1 GDP and Productivity Percent Change

Figure 3-2 shows the percent change of GDP in America from 1997 to 2008.Figure 3-3 gives a clear picture of American consumer confidence change after June,1997 until the end of 2008.From Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-3,we can find that when consumer confidence of American was at its high level from 1997 to 2000,the growth rate of GDP was also at its relative high stage.After 2000,consumer confidence went down and came into a relatively low period until 2003.Meanwhile the growth rate of GDP also fluctuated around a low level.During 2004 to 2006,when consumer confidence stayed at a high level,the U.S.economy also grew at a high rate.By 2008,when consumer confidence came to the lowest point,the growth rate of the GDP also went down and had its lowest growth rate.The two figures,appropriately,give a relevant relationship between consumer confidence and GDP growth.

Figure 3-2 GDP Percent Change

Figure 3-3 Consumer Confidence Index

Generally,from the three figures,there is very strong evidence that proves that market economy is formed by two parts.One part is reason,which is represented by multifactor productivity here.Another part is emotion,of which I interpret the consumer confidence index as an indicator here.I so assert that the analysis of the above data gives a convincing result to the hypothesis of this thesis.

In order to show the relationship between the consumer confidence index and gross domestic product in more detail,the author gives another picture,which is based on quarterly data.(www.xing528.com)

Figure 3-4 shows the relationship between the consumer confidence index(CCI)and GDP growth rate.The horizontal axis shows the quarterly growth rate of gross domestic product(GDP),while the vertical axis shows the consumer confidence index(CCI).The graph shows in more detail the positive linear relationship between the consumer confidence index and the fluctuation of GDP.

Figure 3-4 Quarterly CCI and GDP Growth Rate

Next,the linear model of econometrics is used.According to the hypothesis,the mathematical model can be constructed as follows:

GDP growth rate=C+a*MP+b*CCI

GDP growth rate is the growth rate of GDP,C is the constant term,CCI is the consumer confidence index,MP is multifactor productivity,a and b are coefficients.Annual data are used for 1998-2008.The data are inputted into the computer software Stata,and the calculation results are as follows.

Figure 3-5 is a screenshot of the computer's output.The following equation is a mathematical equation derived from the results of calculation,with standard error in parentheses.The F and P values of the equation confirm the model.The standard deviation of the coefficients is also within a reasonable range.When the significant value is set below 0.1,the P value of MP is 0.076 and it is within a reasonable range.Thus,it is proved in mathematics that market economy is the combination of reason and emotion.

Figure 3-5 The Relation between Gross Domestic Pr oduct Growth Rate and Consumer Confidence Index and Multi-factor Productivity

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