贾立文[2] 马学俊[3]
摘要 基于新经济地理学和人口视角下的产业集聚理论，使用变量选择方法LASSO和SCAD建立线性回归模型，论证了经济和人口因素在分析财险市场集中问题时的重要性，并发现经济和人口等指标对财险市场集中度的影响为负。使用HHI指标建模得到的结论一致，说明模型具有稳健性。随着区域经济的发展、人口规模的扩大以及技术水平的提升，财险市场将逐渐趋于市场化。当前稳中求进的宏观经济政策、“单独二孩”政策和全面放开的“二孩”政策以及产业结构升级调整政策均有助于优化财险业的市场格局。
关键词 产业集聚；财险市场集中度；LASSO；SCAD
Study on the Property Insurance Market Development from the Perspective of Regional Economy and Population：Based on LASSO and SCAD Methods(www.xing528.com)
JIA Li-wen，MA Xue-jun
Abstract：According to the new economic geography and population-based industrial agglomeration theory，this paper considers the impact of regional economic development and population density on the property insurance market concentration.Two variable selection methods，LASSO and SCAD，are utilized to build linear regression model.The economic indicator，population indicator not only are the key factors to explain property insurance market concentration，but also have negative effect to property insurance market concentration.Take HHI as concentration indicator，the result is consistent，which means that the model is robust.Therefore，accompanied with the regional economic development，the expansion of population density and the improvement of the technology level，the property insurance market will be a liberalized market.The conclusion illustrates the macroeconomic policy and the industrial structure policy is beneficial to the market structure of property insurance industry.
Key Words：Industrial Agglomeration；Property Insurance Market Concentration；LASSO；SCAD
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