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Solow模型预测的经济发展趋势与实际情况的出入

时间:2023-05-16 理论教育 版权反馈
【摘要】:The Solow model predicted that GDP per capita in various countries would eventually converge.However,data from a number of countries over the last 50 years failed to give it substance.That way,such ca

Solow模型预测的经济发展趋势与实际情况的出入

The Solow model predicted that GDP per capita in various countries would eventually converge.However,data from a number of countries over the last 50 years failed to give it substance.That way,such cases could only become seen as not following Solow's model,yet are now explained by a model contained in this book.While Acemoglu's theory and model couldn't explain the aforementioned fluctuations or different speeds of economic growth,the mathematical model in this book can.

Functions:

(3)Y=[A(X-Xm)+1]BZ

(4)Xm=C/Z

In the above Functions(1)and(2),Y is GDP(output)and X is profit rate;Z is the institutions and Xm is the minimum threshold profit rate;A,B and C are coefficients. (www.xing528.com)

Such functions have stood up to wide general application to economic growth from the First Industrial Revolution to the current.Given that the First Industrial Revolution was initiated by individual firms,the mathematical functions have also been suitable for application at company level—that is,at micro-economic level.

For anything to rightly be named a principle,it should have the ability to meet any challenges,and it should have falsifiability in a market economy,and no exceptions should evidence themselves to it in a market economy.[Falsifiability:A statement,hypothesis,or theory has falsifiability(or is falsifiable)if it is contradicted by a basic statement,which,in an eventual successful or failed falsification must respectively correspond to a true or hypothetical observation.]The author asserts that the theory and mathematical functions above are able to withstand the challenges of any historical account of market economic development and any conditions arising in a market economy,without exception.Therefore,the author has decided to publicize this principle for market economies.And the theory and mathematical model welcomes wider reading from colleagues in economics.

This book discovers a theory and mathematical function that lack exception in the market economy.Since the First Industrial Revolution,from the first shuttle of the textile machine,this theory and mathematical function have applied unproblematically to any situation of the market economy—with no exception.It may sound bold to claim,but the author argues that they concur with every economic growth in market economies and every economic recession—including the stagflation caused by the crude oil crisis in the 1970s,together even explaining how Germany and Japan could achieve high-speed economic growth after the Second World War while other developing countries receiving the fund from the World Bank and the IMF did not achieve sustained high-speed economic growth.This economic principle for the market economy possesses the universality which is a necessity so as for it to be a principle.Meanwhile,it also possesses the falsifiability which is a necessity in science,so it is the principle of market economies.Comparing this theory and mathematical function with previous economic theories,such as Keynesian economics,monetary economics,classical economics etc.,this theory and mathematical function truly do fail to suffer from exceptions in market economies.

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